The countdown continues… Just one week left in the month, meaning we’re in the final lap of the Digital declutter experiment (for more details, check this post).

I finally got the courage to check the stats for the blog posts this month, and although it’s not totally crickets in here, it’s clear that my online absence is taking its toll on the numbers. Well, I guess it’s one of the trade-offs I have to deal with. Big shout-outs to the folks that come back here often.

Wrong Estimates

In a conversation with a friend in the week, I was asked if staying off social media had boosted my productivity so far. Well, not particularly. I’ll probably be doing as much if I were active online. And even though this is contrary to my expectations coming into the month, I have long made my peace with achieving less than I anticipated.

However, the mental detox that comes with unplugging from the hyperactive internet community is super refreshing and well worth it. The resulting “solitude” has given me the allowance to carry out some much-needed introspection that would be almost impossible otherwise.

As I stated in the second entry of this series, my “failed” pursuit of productivity has made me realize my tendency to grossly exaggerate time estimates required to carry out certain tasks. There’s often a huge discrepancy between my plans and the eventual reality, and this trend happens to be repetitive.

I had thought this problem was unique to me and everyone else had a good command of their time allocation. Well, turns out I was wrong. Not only is this phenomenon common, but I also found out over the weekend that it has a name: planning fallacy (There seems to be a name for everything).

What is Planning Fallacy

“Planning fallacy” is a cognitive bias that explains the tendency to underestimate the time and resources required to achieve a task. This term was coined by psychologist Daniel Kahneman in 1979. Several studies have shown that predictions of time and resources required to complete tasks are often subject to an optimism bias and consistently fall short of reality.

You know that moment when you think an hour is enough to get ready and commute to class or some other place, only to be stuck in traffic when the class starts and eventually arrive late. This bias also finds expression in project estimates. We think a project would be completed in a given time, only for it to stretch beyond our expectations.

This often occurs because our estimates are often based on the assumption that everything would go smoothly. As a result, we fail to factor in the possibility of unforeseen obstacles and mishaps which are often inevitable in reality. And this isn’t limited to personal tasks. Some grand high-budget projects across fields have fallen victims to this phenomenon as well.

Well, as with any other problem, it is not sufficient to just be aware of it. How can we counter this negative tendency that impedes productivity and makes us run late for almost everything?

Buffer

The book Essentialism teaches that “buffering” is one of the practices of an essentialist. The author, Greg McKeown, argues that the nonessentialist often assumes the best case scenario when making plans. They end up cramping multiple tasks into an unrealistic time frame. On the other hand, the essentialist is aware of this bias and factors it into planning.

In response to the planning fallacy, it is necessary to “go overboard” in planning time and resources. Experience has it that the amount of time and resources we deem sufficient is often not sufficient. So when making plans, always add a buffer to your estimates having in mind that there’s a high probability of underestimating.

Buffering not only helps in solving the problem of running late for appointments or missing deadlines but also relieves the stress that comes with them. You’ll be more relaxed working on a project knowing that you have ample time to complete it. Running late on a deadline brings about increased pressure, and it might end up jeopardizing your efforts.

If you complete the task before the buffered time you allocated to it, you end up with extra time on your hands which is way better than delivering later than planned.

COVID updates

Last week, I wrote about the new restrictions in certain public places as a result of the new wave of the COVID virus that’s hitting the country. The numbers associated with COVID in Russia are quickly rising again and reports claim that more and more people are at risk of the virus daily.

In response, several cities are going on short-term lockdown in an attempt to properly manage the situation at hand. There’s a lot of uncertainties surrounding the recent developments on this matter. Hopefully, things get more stable with time.